📊 战绩台账 (Track Record)

方向命中率 51.9% (14 对 / 13 错, 共 27 个已分胜负) · 截至 2026-06-21

不是复盘别人的过去, 而是可验证的前瞻判断战绩——每个判断都钉死 doc_date 价位, 后验它对没对。

计分口径 (诚实边界)

  • 方向取自每篇文档的 signal frontmatter (🔴short/🟡neutral/🟢long), 非 watchlist 自由文本。
  • 入场价 = CoinGecko /history 的 doc_date 00:00 UTC 快照 (日级, 约±1天偏移); 当前价 = 实时。
  • 判定: short 跌=✅ / long 涨=✅; |涨跌|<10% 记 ⚪未决 (太早/未分胜负); neutral ➖不计分。
  • ⚠️ 期中盯市, 非最终 P&L。多数 short 是条件单(反弹再空/cliff前空), 从 doc_date 盯市是代理; 未来催化(解锁cliff)尚未兑现的会长期停在 ⚪。

战绩快照

指标
方向命中率51.9%
✅ 判对14
❌ 判错13
⚪ 未决 (波动<10% / 催化未到)141
➖ 中性 (不计分)82
❔ 无数据8
总信号258

仓位记分卡 (按 actionable, 仅真实交易设置)

观点准确率是”方向判断准不准”(大样本); 仓位记分卡是”真下的单赚不赚”(小样本但真)。未标 actionable 的 = 观望/无仓位, 不计入此列 —— 样本小是它该有的样子, 别拿小样本当 edge 证据。

指标
仓位命中率50.0%
✅ 判对1
❌ 判错1
⚪ 未决3
➖ 无仓位 (观望/未标)245
已分胜负仓位2

🔫 实盘仓位 (monitor 已触发 entry · 真实触发价)

打通 monitor → ledger: 这些是触发器实际触发的仓位, 入场价 = 触发价(非 doc_date 代理), 是最名副其实的仓位战绩。空头收益 = 跌幅(跌为对), 多头 = 涨幅(涨为对)。

代币方向触发器触发价现价价格变动判定
TAO🟢多tao-entry-1$243.1700$236.5100-2.7%
JUP🟢多jup-entry-2$0.21152$0.22234+5.1%
AI🔴空ai-entry-1$0.02683$0.02663-0.8%

分赛道命中率

赛道命中率
DeFi1420%
公链4180%
AI3175%
应用030%
链抽象020%
链游10100%
DePIN存储10100%
RWA10100%
预测市场10100%
隐私010%
身份DID10100%
DePIN算力010%
memecoin10100%

🏆 最佳判断 (方向 × 幅度)

代币方向doc_date入场现价涨跌天数
BEAT🔴2026-06-11$6.8935$1.7100-75.2%10d
OPN🔴2026-06-04$0.23045$0.07280-68.4%17d
H🔴2026-06-01$0.45881$0.19573-57.3%20d
UB🔴2026-05-29$0.17142$0.08833-48.5%23d
BSB🔴2026-05-18$0.58011$0.34422-40.7%34d
BABY🔴2026-06-16$0.01952$0.01433-26.6%5d
FIL🔴2026-05-17$0.97196$0.79470-18.2%35d
MNT🔴2026-05-17$0.64281$0.53293-17.1%35d

❌ 打脸 (判错, 待复盘)

代币方向doc_date入场现价涨跌天数
LAB🔴2026-06-01$9.7491$15.2700+56.6%20d
ALLO🔴2026-05-30$0.25636$0.39186+52.9%22d
EIGEN🔴2026-06-15$0.20322$0.27091+33.3%6d
MMT🔴2026-06-16$0.12759$0.15612+22.4%5d
BASED🔴2026-06-17$0.07621$0.09101+19.4%4d
AXS🔴2026-06-19$0.95485$1.1400+19.4%2d
W🔴2026-06-20$0.00949035$0.01105+16.4%1d
ACU🔴2026-06-17$0.07601$0.08807+15.9%4d

全部信号明细

代币赛道方向判定doc_date入场现价涨跌备注
LABDeFi🔴2026-06-01$9.7491$15.2700+56.6%
ALLOAI🔴2026-05-30$0.25636$0.39186+52.9%
AERODeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.37541$0.53707+43.1%踏空 +43%
EIGEN公链🔴2026-06-15$0.20322$0.27091+33.3%
BICO链抽象🟡2026-06-20$0.03549$0.04657+31.2%踏空 +31%
JTODeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.55903$0.71058+27.1%踏空 +27%
METDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.13611$0.17240+26.7%踏空 +27%
JUPDeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.17898$0.21957+22.7%
MMTDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.12759$0.15612+22.4%
BASEDDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.07621$0.09101+19.4%
AXS应用🔴2026-06-19$0.95485$1.1400+19.4%
W链抽象🔴2026-06-20$0.00949035$0.01105+16.4%
ACUDePIN算力🔴2026-06-17$0.07601$0.08807+15.9%
EDGEDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.34812$0.39367+13.1%
MANA应用🔴2026-06-19$0.06692$0.07566+13.1%
SAND应用🔴2026-06-19$0.05158$0.05793+12.3%
WLD身份DID🟡2026-06-04$0.53967$0.60382+11.9%
POPCATmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.04237$0.04723+11.5%
KMNODeFi🟡2026-06-16$0.01802$0.01997+10.8%
TRIA链抽象🔴2026-06-16$0.02252$0.02485+10.3%
XPL公链🟡2026-06-15$0.08964$0.09846+9.8%
SIGN身份DID🔴2026-06-17$0.00880966$0.00956019+8.5%
PIPPINmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.01545$0.01653+7.0%
COAIAI🔴2026-06-16$0.32168$0.34351+6.8%
ZAMA隐私🟡2026-06-15$0.03178$0.03389+6.6%
HYPEDeFi🟢2026-06-15$63.9581$67.9900+6.3%
MERL公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02008$0.02132+6.2%
IP公链🟡2026-06-15$0.30448$0.32260+5.9%
NIGHT隐私🔴2026-06-19$0.03104$0.03279+5.6%
AT预言机🔴2026-06-14$0.13217$0.13938+5.5%
UPDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.33933$0.35806+5.5%
AEVODeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.01854$0.01951+5.2%
YGG链游🟡2026-06-20$0.02549$0.02672+4.8%
GRASSAI🔴2026-06-19$0.40028$0.41822+4.5%
ZKP身份DID🔴2026-06-17$0.05615$0.05864+4.4%
ANIME社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.00281783$0.00294303+4.4%
HMSTR链游🔴2026-06-20$0.00015397$0.00016058+4.3%
GALA应用🔴2026-06-19$0.00258192$0.00268943+4.2%
CORE公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02678$0.02791+4.2%
MEWmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00036382$0.00037898+4.2%
GMT链游🟡2026-06-20$0.00795410$0.00829135+4.2%
2ZDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.07080$0.07367+4.1%
PENDLEDeFi🔴2026-06-19$1.4023$1.4600+4.1%
ZEN隐私🔴2026-06-20$4.4808$4.6500+3.8%
GRTAI🔴2026-06-19$0.01946$0.02015+3.5%
COMPDeFi🔴2026-06-19$17.5915$18.2100+3.5%
DOOD社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.00146222$0.00151372+3.5%
DASH公链🔴2026-06-19$35.3417$36.5100+3.3%
APE应用🔴2026-06-19$0.13338$0.13781+3.3%
PI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.13069$0.13486+3.2%
MASK社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.39177$0.40418+3.2%
NOT链游🔴2026-06-20$0.00040492$0.00041767+3.1%
FARTCOINmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.12136$0.12503+3.0%
APT公链🔴2026-06-19$0.64024$0.65894+2.9%
BERA公链🔴2026-06-20$0.22463$0.23091+2.8%
ME应用🔴2026-06-20$0.06149$0.06321+2.8%
ONE公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00140087$0.00144074+2.8%
ETC公链🔴2026-06-19$7.1999$7.3900+2.6%
AGLD链游🟡2026-06-20$0.15437$0.15837+2.6%
GAS公链🔴2026-06-20$1.0934$1.1200+2.4%
AIAI🔴2026-06-16$0.02600$0.02660+2.3%
SOL公链🟡2026-06-18$71.9773$73.5900+2.2%
LTC公链🔴2026-06-19$43.7930$44.7700+2.2%
GLMAI🔴2026-06-20$0.10657$0.10888+2.2%
GMXDeFi🟡2026-06-20$5.8995$6.0300+2.2%
SOON公链🔴2026-06-16$0.17196$0.17557+2.1%
TRUTHAI🔴2026-06-17$0.01331$0.01359+2.1%
SKYDeFi🟡2026-06-19$0.05776$0.05897+2.1%
POL公链🔴2026-06-19$0.07768$0.07927+2.0%
MOODENGmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.03994$0.04075+2.0%
ASTERDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.63389$0.64562+1.9%
UMA预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.41311$0.42101+1.9%
BAND预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.15911$0.16212+1.9%
IOST公链🟡2026-06-20$0.00076787$0.00078237+1.9%
BRETTmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00572763$0.00583088+1.8%
ZIL公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00311002$0.00316555+1.8%
TRX公链🟡2026-06-18$0.32149$0.32705+1.7%
ZK公链🟡2026-06-16$0.01166$0.01185+1.6%
THETAAI🔴2026-06-19$0.15484$0.15735+1.6%
KSM公链🔴2026-06-20$3.4648$3.5200+1.6%
USELESSmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.07426$0.07542+1.6%
PLUMERWA🔴2026-06-20$0.01089$0.01107+1.6%
APRDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.19632$0.19918+1.5%
BONKmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000452$0.00000458+1.4%
QTUM公链🔴2026-06-20$0.72195$0.73199+1.4%
LUNA公链🔴2026-06-20$0.05123$0.05194+1.4%
KGEN链游🔴2026-06-16$0.17101$0.17324+1.3%
CHIPRWA🔴2026-06-16$0.03664$0.03709+1.2%
TON公链🔴2026-06-18$1.6607$1.6800+1.2%
RSRDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.00129344$0.00130939+1.2%
TRUSTAI🔴2026-06-17$0.04994$0.05049+1.1%
XTZ公链🔴2026-06-19$0.23096$0.23361+1.1%
SYRUPDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.13568$0.13722+1.1%
ARKMAI🔴2026-06-20$0.13282$0.13435+1.1%
VIRTUALAI🔴2026-06-19$0.59771$0.60349+1.0%
SUSHIDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.17589$0.17771+1.0%
PNUTmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.04408$0.04453+1.0%
LQTYDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.19701$0.19895+1.0%
PENGUmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00672775$0.00678947+0.9%
ONT身份DID🔴2026-06-20$0.04577$0.04619+0.9%
BOMEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00043497$0.00043880+0.9%
WETDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.06115$0.06166+0.8%
QNT链抽象🔴2026-06-19$69.9647$70.5200+0.8%
ZETA链抽象🔴2026-06-20$0.03646$0.03676+0.8%
NEAR公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2335$2.2500+0.7%
1INCHDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.07287$0.07328+0.6%
NEIROmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00006651$0.00006692+0.6%
ICX公链🔴2026-06-20$0.02784$0.02797+0.5%
ICP公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2612$2.2700+0.4%
FLOW公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02837$0.02847+0.4%
NOW应用🟡2026-06-20$0.34325$0.34452+0.4%
WOODeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.01278$0.01284+0.4%
LRCZK🔴2026-06-20$0.01338$0.01343+0.4%
MUBARAKmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.01050$0.01053+0.4%
LDODeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.27677$0.27758+0.3%
AAVEDeFi🟡2026-06-19$74.4640$74.6300+0.2%
NEO公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2051$2.2100+0.2%
ETHW公链🔴2026-06-20$0.23862$0.23900+0.2%
PROVE公链🔴2026-06-16$0.20448$0.20478+0.1%
DYDXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.11980$0.11996+0.1%
EGLD公链🔴2026-06-20$2.8665$2.8700+0.1%
SEI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.05501$0.05498-0.1%
LPTAI🔴2026-06-20$1.7617$1.7600-0.1%
PEPEmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000284$0.00000283-0.2%
KAITOAI🟡2026-06-15$0.47323$0.47163-0.3%
PIEVERSE支付🔴2026-06-16$0.70224$0.70023-0.3%
SPACEDePIN通信🔴2026-06-16$0.00659378$0.00657239-0.3%
SNXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.24142$0.24071-0.3%
PEOPLEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00555272$0.00553083-0.4%
GIGGLEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$26.7860$26.6600-0.5%
SAPIENAI🔴2026-06-17$0.08284$0.08237-0.6%
BTC公链🟡2026-06-18$64,422.5737$64,017.0000-0.6%
DOT公链🔴2026-06-19$0.97141$0.96573-0.6%
RVN公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00418181$0.00415214-0.7%
TURBOmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00088765$0.00088168-0.7%
BLUR应用🔴2026-06-20$0.01589$0.01577-0.7%
VANAAI🔴2026-06-16$1.1691$1.1600-0.8%
BCH公链🔴2026-06-19$199.1469$197.4900-0.8%
BAT应用🔴2026-06-19$0.09061$0.08991-0.8%
YFIDeFi🟡2026-06-20$1,849.1884$1,834.8300-0.8%
STX公链🔴2026-06-19$0.18443$0.18286-0.9%
JELLYJELLYmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.05934$0.05881-0.9%
CELO公链🟡2026-06-20$0.06689$0.06632-0.9%
SSVDeFi🟡2026-06-20$2.3819$2.3600-0.9%
SENTAI🟡2026-06-15$0.01558$0.01542-1.0%
ETH公链🟡2026-06-18$1,747.9435$1,728.4300-1.1%
MINAZK🟡2026-06-20$0.04245$0.04198-1.1%
TRB预言机🔴2026-06-20$13.8675$13.7200-1.1%
NMRAI🟡2026-06-20$9.1466$9.0300-1.3%
SHIBmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000476$0.00000469-1.4%
RAYDeFi🟡2026-06-16$0.63527$0.62581-1.5%
ZRXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.08588$0.08458-1.5%
MEMEmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.00055106$0.00054272-1.5%
BBRestaking🔴2026-06-18$0.02280$0.02243-1.6%
BREVZK🔴2026-06-17$0.08149$0.08018-1.6%
LINK预言机🔴2026-06-18$8.0782$7.9500-1.6%
WCT链抽象🔴2026-06-18$0.04769$0.04689-1.7%
LINEA公链🟡2026-06-16$0.00258445$0.00253765-1.8%
STABLE公链🔴2026-06-15$0.03555$0.03488-1.9%
IOTA公链🔴2026-06-19$0.04579$0.04494-1.9%
FOGO公链🔴2026-06-17$0.01303$0.01276-2.0%
GPS安全🔴2026-06-17$0.00936982$0.00917887-2.0%
ARB公链🔴2026-06-19$0.08510$0.08342-2.0%
WIFmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.16574$0.16235-2.0%
IMX链游🟡2026-06-15$0.14640$0.14328-2.1%
EDENRWA🔴2026-06-04$0.04843$0.04728-2.4%
LAZK🔴2026-06-17$0.07573$0.07390-2.4%
CFX公链🔴2026-06-19$0.04885$0.04768-2.4%
SATSmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00000001$0.00000001-2.4%
API3预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.27161$0.26474-2.5%
SUI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.72767$0.70850-2.6%
BIGTIME链游2026-06-18$0.00894320$0.00869909-2.7%
WALDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.03544$0.03443-2.8%
WLFIDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.05985$0.05812-2.9%
ENJ链游🔴2026-06-20$0.03556$0.03453-2.9%
XRP公链🟡2026-06-18$1.1856$1.1500-3.0%
SOPH公链🔴2026-06-17$0.00552694$0.00534887-3.2%
DOGEmemecoin🔴2026-06-18$0.08583$0.08305-3.2%
ALGO公链🔴2026-06-19$0.09592$0.09289-3.2%
HUMARWA🟡2026-06-16$0.02396$0.02317-3.3%
OPGAI🟡2026-06-16$0.16421$0.15875-3.3%
ENADeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.09476$0.09155-3.4%
ADA公链🔴2026-06-18$0.16663$0.16083-3.5%
KAT公链🔴2026-06-17$0.00570672$0.00549956-3.6%
STRK公链🔴2026-06-19$0.03551$0.03425-3.6%
CHZ应用🔴2026-06-19$0.02228$0.02145-3.7%
OKBCEX平台币🟡2026-06-04$79.1167$75.8400-4.1%
METIS公链🟡2026-06-20$3.3579$3.2200-4.1%
CCRWA🟡2026-06-18$0.16222$0.15548-4.2%
AVNTDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.11440$0.10921-4.5%
ETHFIDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.36223$0.34599-4.5%
ORDERDeFi🔴2026-06-18$0.04001$0.03818-4.6%
CRVDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.22497$0.21460-4.6%
PROSRWA🟡2026-06-15$0.58166$0.55436-4.7%
MORPHODeFi🔴2026-06-19$1.9433$1.8500-4.8%
BNBCEX平台币🟢2026-06-04$619.9729$588.8100-5.0%
ATHAI🟡2026-06-16$0.00495000$0.00470274-5.0%
PUMPDeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.00157436$0.00149239-5.2%
TIA公链🔴2026-06-19$0.39178$0.37033-5.5%
LITDeFi🟡2026-06-15$1.6739$1.5800-5.6%
FLOKImemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00002726$0.00002573-5.6%
CROCEX平台币🔴2026-06-15$0.06246$0.05887-5.7%
RIVERDeFi🔴2026-06-16$4.7893$4.5100-5.8%
UNIDeFi🟡2026-06-19$3.1859$3.0000-5.8%
ZRO公链🟡2026-06-15$0.95565$0.89955-5.9%
A公链🔴2026-06-19$0.06953$0.06532-6.0%
ENSODeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.66061$0.62044-6.1%
OP公链🔴2026-06-19$0.10909$0.10229-6.2%
IRYSDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.01845$0.01729-6.3%
XLM公链🔴2026-06-18$0.22622$0.21190-6.3%
MOVE公链🔴2026-06-17$0.01264$0.01182-6.4%
ZBTZK🔴2026-06-17$0.12837$0.11963-6.8%
ZORA社交娱乐🔴2026-06-17$0.00842188$0.00785174-6.8%
RECALLAI🔴2026-06-18$0.03611$0.03363-6.9%
INIT公链🔴2026-06-17$0.06036$0.05599-7.2%
INJ公链🔴2026-06-19$5.3785$4.9900-7.2%
AZTEC隐私🔴2026-06-16$0.01670$0.01548-7.3%
METADeFi🟡2026-06-20$3,072.2950$2,848.1900-7.3%
BIOAI🟡2026-06-20$0.03449$0.03189-7.5%
LAYERRestaking🔴2026-06-17$0.07171$0.06625-7.6%
MON公链🔴2026-06-15$0.02248$0.02073-7.8%
YBDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.08745$0.08051-7.9%
ENS身份DID🟡2026-06-15$5.1304$4.7200-8.0%
PARTI链抽象🔴2026-06-17$0.06178$0.05650-8.5%
ONDORWA🟡2026-06-15$0.36794$0.33623-8.6%
PYTH预言机🟢2026-05-30$0.04051$0.03692-8.9%
RAVE社交娱乐🔴2026-06-16$0.29482$0.26817-9.0%
S公链🔴2026-06-20$0.03064$0.02789-9.0%
TRUMPmemecoin🟡2026-06-16$1.9866$1.8000-9.4%
MEGA公链🟡2026-06-15$0.06292$0.05674-9.8%
ACTmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.01017$0.00914383-10.1%
SAHARAAI🔴2026-06-16$0.01486$0.01319-11.3%
0G公链🟡2026-06-16$0.30600$0.27074-11.5%
SPKDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.02007$0.01774-11.6%
BLEND公链🔴2026-06-11$0.06739$0.05924-12.1%
KITEAI🔴2026-06-15$0.19250$0.16760-12.9%
TAOAI🟡2026-06-15$271.4199$234.8000-13.5%
ZEC隐私🟢2026-05-31$527.3792$455.8200-13.6%
ESP公链🔴2026-06-16$0.07243$0.06200-14.4%
MNT公链🔴2026-05-17$0.64281$0.53293-17.1%
FILDePIN存储🔴2026-05-17$0.97196$0.79470-18.2%
ARDePIN存储🟡2026-06-04$2.5240$2.0100-20.4%
BABY公链🔴2026-06-16$0.01952$0.01433-26.6%
ID身份DID🟡2026-05-31$0.03984$0.02862-28.2%避坑 -28%
BSBRWA🔴2026-05-18$0.58011$0.34422-40.7%
UBAI🔴2026-05-29$0.17142$0.08833-48.5%
HOMEDeFi🟡2026-06-04$0.04044$0.01984-50.9%避坑 -51%
H身份DID🔴2026-06-01$0.45881$0.19573-57.3%
OPN预测市场🔴2026-06-04$0.23045$0.07280-68.4%
BEAT链游🔴2026-06-11$6.8935$1.7100-75.2%
HBAR公链🔴2026-06-19
AVAX公链🔴2026-06-19
ATOM公链🔴2026-06-19
RENDERAI🔴2026-06-19
ORDImemecoin🟡2026-06-20
AUCTIONDeFi🟡2026-06-20
AIXBTAI🟡2026-06-20
MAGIC链游🟡2026-06-20

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