📊 战绩台账 (Track Record)

方向命中率 84.9% (73 对 / 13 错, 共 86 个已分胜负) · 截至 2026-07-27

不是复盘别人的过去, 而是可验证的前瞻判断战绩——每个判断都钉死 doc_date 价位, 后验它对没对。

计分口径 (诚实边界)

  • 方向取自每篇文档的 signal frontmatter (🔴short/🟡neutral/🟢long), 非 watchlist 自由文本。
  • 入场价 = CoinGecko /history 的 doc_date 00:00 UTC 快照 (日级, 约±1天偏移); 当前价 = 实时。
  • 判定: short 跌=✅ / long 涨=✅; |涨跌|<10% 记 ⚪未决 (太早/未分胜负); neutral ➖不计分。
  • ⚠️ 期中盯市, 非最终 P&L。多数 short 是条件单(反弹再空/cliff前空), 从 doc_date 盯市是代理; 未来催化(解锁cliff)尚未兑现的会长期停在 ⚪。

战绩快照

指标
方向命中率84.9%
✅ 判对73
❌ 判错13
⚪ 未决 (波动<10% / 催化未到)86
➖ 中性 (不计分)87
❔ 无数据1
总信号260

仓位记分卡 (按 actionable, 仅真实交易设置)

观点准确率是”方向判断准不准”(大样本); 仓位记分卡是”真下的单赚不赚”(小样本但真)。未标 actionable 的 = 观望/无仓位, 不计入此列 —— 样本小是它该有的样子, 别拿小样本当 edge 证据。

指标
仓位命中率66.7%
✅ 判对2
❌ 判错1
⚪ 未决3
➖ 无仓位 (观望/未标)253
已分胜负仓位3

🔫 实盘仓位 (monitor 已触发 entry · 真实触发价)

打通 monitor → ledger: 这些是触发器实际触发的仓位, 入场价 = 触发价(非 doc_date 代理), 是最名副其实的仓位战绩。空头收益 = 跌幅(跌为对), 多头 = 涨幅(涨为对)。

(暂无已触发的 entry 仓位)

分赛道命中率

赛道命中率
公链27293%
DeFi6843%
AI9190%
应用4180%
链游3175%
DePIN存储40100%
链抽象40100%
memecoin40100%
RWA30100%
身份DID20100%
隐私20100%
ZK20100%
预测市场10100%
Restaking10100%
社交娱乐10100%

🏆 最佳判断 (方向 × 幅度)

代币方向doc_date入场现价涨跌天数
LAB🔴2026-06-01$9.5016$0.15689-98.3%56d
H🔴2026-06-01$0.46044$0.06095-86.8%56d
BSB🔴2026-05-18$0.57639$0.12826-77.7%70d
OPN🔴2026-06-04$0.23018$0.06052-73.7%53d
TRIA🔴2026-06-16$0.02257$0.00875424-61.2%41d
PARTI🔴2026-06-17$0.06150$0.02713-55.9%40d
BEAT🔴2026-06-11$6.8935$3.4800-49.5%46d
KITE🔴2026-06-15$0.19236$0.10718-44.3%42d

❌ 打脸 (判错, 待复盘)

代币方向doc_date入场现价涨跌天数
ESP🔴2026-06-16$0.07245$0.10833+49.5%41d
LDO🔴2026-06-19$0.27725$0.38732+39.7%38d
MMT🔴2026-06-16$0.12789$0.17254+34.9%41d
SYRUP🔴2026-06-19$0.13588$0.17154+26.2%38d
ALLO🔴2026-05-30$0.25651$0.32227+25.6%58d
EDGE🔴2026-06-16$0.34818$0.41383+18.9%41d
ETHFI🔴2026-06-19$0.36292$0.43052+18.6%38d
ENSO🔴2026-06-17$0.65951$0.77945+18.2%40d

全部信号明细

代币赛道方向判定doc_date入场现价涨跌备注
KAITOAI🟡2026-06-15$0.47323$1.1600+145.1%踏空 +145%
ZAMA隐私🟡2026-06-15$0.03179$0.05600+76.1%踏空 +76%
ESP公链🔴2026-06-16$0.07245$0.10833+49.5%
METADeFi🟡2026-06-20$3,224.8574$4,613.2900+43.1%踏空 +43%
LDODeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.27725$0.38732+39.7%
MMTDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.12789$0.17254+34.9%
AAVEDeFi🟡2026-06-19$74.8097$99.6400+33.2%踏空 +33%
LITDeFi🟡2026-06-15$1.6838$2.2300+32.4%踏空 +32%
PUMPDeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.00157465$0.00198667+26.2%踏空 +26%
SYRUPDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.13588$0.17154+26.2%
METDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.13583$0.17112+26.0%踏空 +26%
ALLOAI🔴2026-05-30$0.25651$0.32227+25.6%
UNIDeFi🟡2026-06-19$3.2072$3.9100+21.9%
BOMEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00043497$0.00052138+19.9%
EDGEDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.34818$0.41383+18.9%
ETHFIDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.36292$0.43052+18.6%
ENSODeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.65951$0.77945+18.2%
PEOPLEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00558105$0.00652731+17.0%
1INCHDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.07296$0.08495+16.4%
AERODeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.37759$0.43696+15.7%
GMXDeFi🟡2026-06-20$5.9112$6.8300+15.5%
YFIDeFi🟡2026-06-20$1,855.7379$2,128.7400+14.7%
HMSTR链游🔴2026-06-20$0.00015423$0.00017652+14.5%
SOON公链🔴2026-06-16$0.17226$0.19629+14.0%
ETH公链🟡2026-06-18$1,748.7550$1,950.9200+11.6%
APE应用🔴2026-06-19$0.13335$0.14809+11.1%
BASEDDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.07611$0.08446+11.0%
ONDORWA🟡2026-06-15$0.36754$0.40477+10.1%
PLUMERWA🔴2026-06-20$0.01101$0.01210+9.9%
STABLE公链🔴2026-06-15$0.03549$0.03894+9.7%
PENDLEDeFi🔴2026-06-19$1.4047$1.5400+9.6%
WETDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.06145$0.06730+9.5%
OKBCEX平台币🟡2026-06-04$78.9050$86.0400+9.0%
RECALLAI🔴2026-06-18$0.03621$0.03944+8.9%
PIPPINmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.01552$0.01685+8.6%
BCH公链🔴2026-06-19$199.5051$216.5200+8.5%
LINK预言机🔴2026-06-18$8.0845$8.7600+8.4%
FARTCOINmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.12221$0.13230+8.2%
LTC公链🔴2026-06-19$43.7987$47.3300+8.1%
ORDImemecoin🟡2026-06-20$3.5390$3.8100+7.7%
JTODeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.55884$0.59846+7.1%
NOW应用🟡2026-06-20$0.34330$0.36739+7.0%
SHIBmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000476$0.00000509+6.9%
PYTH预言机🟢2026-05-30$0.04059$0.04336+6.8%
JUPDeFi🟡2026-06-15$0.17948$0.19171+6.8%
ME应用🔴2026-06-20$0.06181$0.06569+6.3%
SOL公链🟡2026-06-18$71.9773$76.2700+6.0%
AVAX公链🔴2026-06-19$6.3106$6.6900+6.0%
ACUDePIN算力🔴2026-06-17$0.07602$0.08037+5.7%
DYDXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.12028$0.12696+5.6%
EIGEN公链🔴2026-06-15$0.20342$0.21443+5.4%
AT预言机🔴2026-06-14$0.13227$0.13894+5.0%
DOOD社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.00146679$0.00153732+4.8%
TRB预言机🔴2026-06-20$13.9274$14.5700+4.6%
KGEN链游🔴2026-06-16$0.17181$0.17952+4.5%
VVVAI🟡2026-07-26$13.3186$13.8700+4.1%
TRUSTAI🔴2026-06-17$0.04991$0.05193+4.0%
MINAZK🟡2026-06-20$0.04268$0.04437+4.0%
AEVODeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.01857$0.01926+3.8%
PEPEmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000284$0.00000295+3.7%
RAVE社交娱乐🔴2026-06-16$0.29320$0.30388+3.6%
TRUTHAI🔴2026-06-17$0.01331$0.01378+3.5%
MANA应用🔴2026-06-19$0.06707$0.06939+3.5%
TRX公链🟡2026-06-18$0.32150$0.33130+3.0%
MUBARAKmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.01052$0.01083+3.0%
POPCATmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.04271$0.04372+2.4%
ETHW公链🔴2026-06-20$0.23949$0.24425+2.0%
MORPHODeFi🔴2026-06-19$1.9450$1.9800+1.8%
CAPDeFi🟡2026-07-26$0.02097$0.02133+1.7%
APRDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.19637$0.19883+1.3%
SPACEDePIN通信🔴2026-06-16$0.00664728$0.00673577+1.3%
BTC公链🟡2026-06-18$64,444.5453$65,227.0000+1.2%
VIRTUALAI🔴2026-06-19$0.59866$0.60518+1.1%
LQTYDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.19801$0.20027+1.1%
VANAAI🔴2026-06-16$1.1700$1.1800+0.9%
GIGGLEmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$26.8805$27.1300+0.9%
WOODeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.01282$0.01287+0.4%
RAYDeFi🟡2026-06-16$0.63558$0.63763+0.3%
PIEVERSE支付🔴2026-06-16$0.70022$0.70195+0.2%
CELO公链🟡2026-06-20$0.06675$0.06672-0.0%
POL公链🔴2026-06-19$0.07769$0.07762-0.1%
SAPIENAI🔴2026-06-17$0.08289$0.08261-0.3%
KMNODeFi🟡2026-06-16$0.01806$0.01798-0.5%
ADA公链🔴2026-06-18$0.16672$0.16581-0.5%
SKYDeFi🟡2026-06-19$0.05781$0.05722-1.0%
GPS安全🔴2026-06-17$0.00935656$0.00925159-1.1%
ASTERDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.63495$0.62719-1.2%
COAIAI🔴2026-06-16$0.31999$0.31582-1.3%
COMPDeFi🔴2026-06-19$17.6422$17.4200-1.3%
JELLYJELLYmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.05978$0.05897-1.4%
BAND预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.15937$0.15716-1.4%
SUI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.72894$0.71686-1.7%
ZRXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.08592$0.08434-1.8%
EGLD公链🔴2026-06-20$2.8747$2.8200-1.9%
BLEND公链🔴2026-06-11$0.06702$0.06569-2.0%
NMRAI🟡2026-06-20$9.1472$8.9500-2.2%
APT公链🔴2026-06-19$0.64194$0.62748-2.3%
BLUR应用🔴2026-06-20$0.01590$0.01549-2.5%
ETC公链🔴2026-06-19$7.2088$7.0200-2.6%
ICP公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2612$2.1900-3.1%
PNUTmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.04431$0.04293-3.1%
MEWmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00036574$0.00035324-3.4%
LAZK🔴2026-06-17$0.07578$0.07303-3.6%
MASK社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.39127$0.37732-3.6%
ARB公链🔴2026-06-19$0.08521$0.08202-3.7%
RSRDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.00129926$0.00125163-3.7%
W链抽象🔴2026-06-20$0.00952123$0.00916414-3.8%
MEMEmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.00055106$0.00052989-3.8%
XTZ公链🔴2026-06-19$0.23141$0.22182-4.1%
MAGIC链游🟡2026-06-20$0.04489$0.04294-4.3%
AGLD链游🟡2026-06-20$0.15492$0.14787-4.6%
ZEC隐私🟢2026-05-31$528.2022$502.7500-4.8%
XPL公链🟡2026-06-15$0.08956$0.08528-4.8%
MERL公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02016$0.01920-4.8%
QTUM公链🔴2026-06-20$0.72412$0.68607-5.3%
PROVE公链🔴2026-06-16$0.20438$0.19319-5.5%
ANIME社交娱乐🟡2026-06-20$0.00283822$0.00268241-5.5%
LINEA公链🟡2026-06-16$0.00259297$0.00244777-5.6%
AIAI🔴2026-06-16$0.02604$0.02458-5.6%
PENGUmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00674319$0.00636858-5.6%
GLMAI🔴2026-06-20$0.10676$0.10083-5.6%
HYPEDeFi🟢2026-06-15$63.8873$60.1100-5.9%
MON公链🔴2026-06-15$0.02249$0.02115-6.0%
ENADeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.09552$0.08962-6.2%
SUSHIDeFi🟡2026-06-20$0.17659$0.16572-6.2%
XRP公链🟡2026-06-18$1.1858$1.1100-6.4%
MOODENGmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.04017$0.03762-6.4%
SATSmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00000001$0.00000001-6.4%
SSVDeFi🟡2026-06-20$2.3960$2.2400-6.5%
CRVDeFi🔴2026-06-19$0.22497$0.21023-6.6%
WIFmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.16615$0.15516-6.6%
AXS应用🔴2026-06-19$0.95485$0.88960-6.8%
BREVZK🔴2026-06-17$0.08150$0.07565-7.2%
GAS公链🔴2026-06-20$1.1002$1.0210-7.2%
ZRO公链🟡2026-06-15$0.95565$0.88472-7.4%
A公链🔴2026-06-19$0.06897$0.06384-7.4%
NEIROmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00006713$0.00006216-7.4%
BNBCEX平台币🟢2026-06-04$619.7835$572.8200-7.6%
DASH公链🔴2026-06-19$35.3417$32.6200-7.7%
TURBOmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00088989$0.00082140-7.7%
WLFIDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.05978$0.05491-8.1%
UPDeFi🔴2026-06-15$0.33933$0.31191-8.1%
ZEN隐私🔴2026-06-20$4.4808$4.1200-8.1%
CROCEX平台币🔴2026-06-15$0.06245$0.05734-8.2%
SIGN身份DID🔴2026-06-17$0.00880698$0.00807046-8.4%
LAYERRestaking🔴2026-06-17$0.07198$0.06581-8.6%
ONT身份DID🔴2026-06-20$0.04587$0.04190-8.7%
CFX公链🔴2026-06-19$0.04884$0.04454-8.8%
INJ公链🔴2026-06-19$5.4013$4.9200-8.9%
SNXDeFi🔴2026-06-20$0.24219$0.22052-8.9%
HUMARWA🟡2026-06-16$0.02396$0.02178-9.1%
GRAM公链🔴2026-06-18$1.6647$1.5100-9.3%
INIT公链🔴2026-06-17$0.06025$0.05446-9.6%
KSM公链🔴2026-06-20$3.4748$3.1400-9.6%
QNT链抽象🔴2026-06-19$69.9811$63.2000-9.7%
ONE公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00140147$0.00125982-10.1%
NEO公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2049$1.9800-10.2%
ZBTZK🔴2026-06-17$0.12848$0.11528-10.3%
RVN公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00419496$0.00375382-10.5%
NOT链游🔴2026-06-20$0.00040601$0.00036253-10.7%
ACTmemecoin🔴2026-06-20$0.01028$0.00917368-10.8%
TIA公链🔴2026-06-19$0.39319$0.35042-10.9%
FLOW公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02846$0.02530-11.1%
GMT链游🟡2026-06-20$0.00796977$0.00707836-11.2%
ENS身份DID🟡2026-06-15$5.1548$4.5700-11.3%
THETAAI🔴2026-06-19$0.15504$0.13748-11.3%
ZETA链抽象🔴2026-06-20$0.03654$0.03242-11.3%
RENDERAI🔴2026-06-19$1.6768$1.4800-11.7%
STRK公链🔴2026-06-19$0.03551$0.03135-11.7%
SAND应用🔴2026-06-19$0.05157$0.04553-11.7%
EDENRWA🔴2026-06-04$0.04865$0.04287-11.9%
AZTEC隐私🔴2026-06-16$0.01667$0.01461-12.3%
GRASSAI🔴2026-06-19$0.40086$0.35140-12.3%
2ZDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.07071$0.06198-12.4%
ATHAI🟡2026-06-16$0.00494941$0.00432242-12.7%
HBAR公链🔴2026-06-19$0.08015$0.06989-12.8%
ALGO公链🔴2026-06-19$0.09624$0.08392-12.8%
OP公链🔴2026-06-19$0.10913$0.09519-12.8%
UMA预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.41426$0.36067-12.9%
IMX链游🟡2026-06-15$0.14647$0.12646-13.7%
SPKDeFi🔴2026-06-16$0.02014$0.01735-13.8%
UBAI🔴2026-05-29$0.17142$0.14705-14.2%
LRCZK🔴2026-06-20$0.01340$0.01141-14.9%
DOGEmemecoin🔴2026-06-18$0.08585$0.07271-15.3%
ZKP身份DID🔴2026-06-17$0.05630$0.04752-15.6%
LUNA公链🔴2026-06-20$0.05136$0.04324-15.8%
WCT链抽象🔴2026-06-18$0.04769$0.04012-15.9%
DOT公链🔴2026-06-19$0.97328$0.81650-16.1%
IOST公链🟡2026-06-20$0.00077091$0.00064682-16.1%
LPTAI🔴2026-06-20$1.7697$1.4800-16.4%
KAT公链🔴2026-06-17$0.00570672$0.00476444-16.5%
BAT应用🔴2026-06-19$0.09090$0.07572-16.7%
AUCTIONDeFi🟡2026-06-20$3.7331$3.1000-17.0%
YBDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.08683$0.07202-17.1%
GRTAI🔴2026-06-19$0.01958$0.01621-17.2%
ICX公链🔴2026-06-20$0.02798$0.02312-17.4%
NEAR公链🔴2026-06-19$2.2335$1.8400-17.6%
AIXBTAI🟡2026-06-20$0.02262$0.01856-18.0%
WALDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.03537$0.02885-18.4%
SEI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.05530$0.04509-18.4%
BRETTmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.00575520$0.00468426-18.6%
FLOKImemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00002738$0.00002224-18.8%
SENTAI🟡2026-06-15$0.01558$0.01261-19.1%
METIS公链🟡2026-06-20$3.3800$2.7300-19.2%
USELESSmemecoin🟡2026-06-20$0.07426$0.05995-19.3%
XLM公链🔴2026-06-18$0.22520$0.18153-19.4%
SOPH公链🔴2026-06-17$0.00552694$0.00444690-19.5%
BERA公链🔴2026-06-20$0.22581$0.18184-19.5%
ARKMAI🔴2026-06-20$0.13380$0.10755-19.6%
ORDERDeFi🔴2026-06-18$0.03996$0.03209-19.7%
CHIPRWA🔴2026-06-16$0.03660$0.02937-19.8%
AVNTDeFi🔴2026-06-17$0.11429$0.09155-19.9%
API3预言机🟡2026-06-20$0.27452$0.21942-20.1%
TRUMPmemecoin🟡2026-06-16$1.9932$1.5900-20.2%
ZK公链🟡2026-06-16$0.01167$0.00929352-20.4%
IRYSDePIN存储🔴2026-06-16$0.01840$0.01443-21.6%
ZORA社交娱乐🔴2026-06-17$0.00842188$0.00660576-21.6%
STX公链🔴2026-06-19$0.18462$0.14424-21.9%
GALA应用🔴2026-06-19$0.00258423$0.00199867-22.7%
FILDePIN存储🔴2026-05-17$0.97143$0.74955-22.8%
BBRestaking🔴2026-06-18$0.02280$0.01760-22.8%
MOVE公链🔴2026-06-17$0.01263$0.00973600-22.9%
BIOAI🟡2026-06-20$0.03469$0.02670-23.0%
ATOM公链🔴2026-06-19$1.8094$1.3900-23.2%
ZIL公链🔴2026-06-20$0.00311171$0.00238488-23.4%
CCRWA🟡2026-06-18$0.16252$0.12393-23.7%
IOTA公链🔴2026-06-19$0.04580$0.03480-24.0%
ENJ链游🔴2026-06-20$0.03554$0.02703-24.0%
S公链🔴2026-06-20$0.03074$0.02329-24.3%
ARDePIN存储🟡2026-06-04$2.5170$1.8700-25.7%避坑 -26%
TAOAI🟡2026-06-15$270.4887$198.5000-26.6%避坑 -27%
BIGTIME链游2026-06-18$0.00894092$0.00654863-26.8%避坑 -27%
ID身份DID🟡2026-05-31$0.04031$0.02942-27.0%避坑 -27%
YGG链游🟡2026-06-20$0.02549$0.01836-28.0%避坑 -28%
MEGA公链🟡2026-06-15$0.06283$0.04500-28.4%避坑 -28%
BONKmemecoin🔴2026-06-19$0.00000453$0.00000315-30.5%
FOGO公链🔴2026-06-17$0.01302$0.00892468-31.4%
CORE公链🟡2026-06-20$0.02684$0.01815-32.4%避坑 -32%
PROSRWA🟡2026-06-15$0.58190$0.38349-34.1%避坑 -34%
BABY公链🔴2026-06-16$0.01952$0.01278-34.6%
WLD身份DID🟡2026-06-04$0.54195$0.35232-35.0%避坑 -35%
RIVERDeFi🔴2026-06-16$4.8017$3.1200-35.0%
MNT公链🔴2026-05-17$0.64327$0.41508-35.5%
OPGAI🟡2026-06-16$0.16220$0.10468-35.5%避坑 -35%
CHZ应用🔴2026-06-19$0.02228$0.01414-36.5%
NIGHT隐私🔴2026-06-19$0.03107$0.01968-36.7%
PI公链🔴2026-06-19$0.13078$0.08159-37.6%
0G公链🟡2026-06-16$0.30600$0.17830-41.7%避坑 -42%
SAHARAAI🔴2026-06-16$0.01490$0.00867809-41.7%
KITEAI🔴2026-06-15$0.19236$0.10718-44.3%
BEAT链游🔴2026-06-11$6.8935$3.4800-49.5%
PARTI链抽象🔴2026-06-17$0.06150$0.02713-55.9%
TRIA链抽象🔴2026-06-16$0.02257$0.00875424-61.2%
BICO链抽象🟡2026-06-20$0.03528$0.01343-61.9%避坑 -62%
OPN预测市场🔴2026-06-04$0.23018$0.06052-73.7%
BSBRWA🔴2026-05-18$0.57639$0.12826-77.7%
HOMEDeFi🟡2026-06-04$0.04023$0.00602987-85.0%避坑 -85%
H身份DID🔴2026-06-01$0.46044$0.06095-86.8%
LABDeFi🔴2026-06-01$9.5016$0.15689-98.3%
IP公链🟡2026-06-15

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